Association of Dietary, Circulating, and Supplement Fatty Acids With Coronary Risk
Abstract
Background:
Guidelines advocate changes in fatty acid consumption to promote cardiovascular health.
Purpose:
To summarize evidence about associations between fatty acids and coronary disease.
Data Sources:
MEDLINE, Science Citation Index, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through July 2013.
Study Selection:
Prospective, observational studies and randomized, controlled trials.
Data Extraction:
Investigators extracted data about study characteristics and assessed study biases.
Data Synthesis:
There were 32 observational studies (512 420 participants) of fatty acids from dietary intake; 17 observational studies (25 721 participants) of fatty acid biomarkers; and 27 randomized, controlled trials (105 085 participants) of fatty acid supplementation. In observational studies, relative risks for coronary disease were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.98 to 1.07) for saturated, 1.00 (CI, 0.91 to 1.10) for monounsaturated, 0.87 (CI, 0.78 to 0.97) for long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated, 0.98 (CI, 0.90 to 1.06) for ω-6 polyunsaturated, and 1.16 (CI, 1.06 to 1.27) for trans fatty acids when the top and bottom thirds of baseline dietary fatty acid intake were compared. Corresponding estimates for circulating fatty acids were 1.06 (CI, 0.86 to 1.30), 1.06 (CI, 0.97 to 1.17), 0.84 (CI, 0.63 to 1.11), 0.94 (CI, 0.84 to 1.06), and 1.05 (CI, 0.76 to 1.44), respectively. There was heterogeneity of the associations among individual circulating fatty acids and coronary disease. In randomized, controlled trials, relative risks for coronary disease were 0.97 (CI, 0.69 to 1.36) for α-linolenic, 0.94 (CI, 0.86 to 1.03) for long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated, and 0.86 (CI, 0.69 to 1.07) for ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementations.
Limitation:
Potential biases from preferential publication and selective reporting.
Conclusion:
Current evidence does not clearly support cardiovascular guidelines that encourage high consumption of polyunsaturated fatty acids and low consumption of total saturated fats.
Primary Funding Source:
British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Cambridge National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, and Gates Cambridge.
Dietary fats mainly comprise triacylglycerols consisting of 3 individual fatty acids, each linked by an ester bond to a glycerol backbone (1, 2). Based on the number of double bonds they contain, fatty acids are classified as saturated, monounsaturated, or polyunsaturated. Specific fatty acids within these categories tend to have different biological effects and physical properties (3). Nutritional guidelines generally encourage low consumption of saturated fats, high consumption of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids from fish or plant sources, and avoidance of trans fats, particularly those from partially hydrogenated fat, to promote cardiovascular health (4, 5). However, there is considerable variation in international guidelines about optimum amounts and types of fatty acid consumption (6–11). This variation reflects, at least in part, uncertainties in the available evidence. For example, prospective observational studies have questioned whether there really are associations between saturated fat consumption and cardiovascular disease (12). Interpretation has been complicated by potential misclassification in the self-report questionnaires used to assess fatty acid consumption (13–15), which also lack the ability to compute intake of specific fatty acids (16). In contrast, fatty acid biomarkers may provide more accurate assessment of consumption, such as for polyunsaturated fatty acids (17), and of metabolism, such as for saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids (17–20). However, earlier analyses have generally not assessed the consistency between findings from dietary self-report and biomarker measures of fatty acids in relation to coronary disease. With respect to randomized trials of fatty acid supplements for preventing coronary disease, interpretation of results has been complicated by the differences in dietary habits of various trial populations, the absence or presence (and type) of preexisting vascular disease at entry, the composition of supplementation regimens, trial duration and power, and apparent differences in reported efficacy for coronary prevention. Furthermore, previous meta-analyses of randomized trials were only focused on ω-3 and ω-6 supplementation (21, 22) and did not include more recent and larger trials.
To help clarify the evidence, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of data from long-term prospective observational studies of a broad range of both dietary and biomarker fatty acid measures in coronary disease. To put the observational evidence into context, we examined associations with coronary outcomes in the randomized trials of fatty acid supplementation.
Methods
Data Sources and Searches
This review was conducted using a predefined protocol and in accordance with the MOOSE (Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (Tables 1 and 2 of Supplement 1). Studies published before 1 July 2013 were identified, without any language restriction, through electronic searches of MEDLINE, Science Citation Index, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The search was supplemented by scans of reference lists of articles identified for all relevant studies and review articles (including meta-analyses) through hand-searching of relevant journals and correspondence with authors of included studies. The computer-based searches combined search terms related to the exposure (such as “fatty acids” and “unsaturated fatty acids”) and coronary disease (such as “myocardial infarction,” “atherosclerosis,” “coronary heart disease,” and “coronary stenosis”) without language restriction (Supplement 2).
Study Selection
Observational and intervention studies were included if they reported on associations of dietary fatty acid intake, fatty acid biomarkers (measured in whole blood, serum, plasma, erythrocyte fraction [that is, circulating fatty acids], or adipose tissue), or fatty acid intervention (dietary or supplements) with risk for coronary disease (defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, coronary insufficiency, coronary death, angina, angiographic coronary stenosis [where possible sudden cardiac death was not included in the outcome definition]) (Table 3 of Supplement 1 provides study-specific outcome definitions). Observational studies were eligible if they were prospective in design with at least 1 year of follow-up and involved participants from general populations (that is, participants not selected on the basis of preexisting disease at baseline) or with stable cardiovascular disease at study entry (defined as a diagnosis made at least 30 days before baseline sampling). Intervention studies were eligible for inclusion if they were randomized and recorded coronary outcomes as an end point of interest.
Data Extraction and Quality Assessment
Using standardized protocols, 2 investigators independently extracted data on several study characteristics, including sample size, study design, sampling population, location, year of baseline survey, participant characteristics (age and sex), duration of follow-up, numbers of disease outcomes of interest and reported effect estimates with coronary disease with each marker, degree of statistical adjustment used, cross-sectional correlation coefficients of dietary fatty acid intake, and circulating fatty acids (where available). Where appropriate, information on sample type (serum, plasma, or adipose tissue), storage temperature, assay methods, dietary assessment tool (diet questionnaire, defined as food-frequency or diet history questionnaires, and diet records, defined as all open-ended instruments, such as 24-hour recall and food diaries), type and formulation of intervention, year of random assignment, allocation concealment, blinding of caregivers and participants, daily dose of supplementation, and composition of placebo was abstracted. Discrepancies were resolved by discussion and by adjudication of a third reviewer. We used the most up-to-date or comprehensive information when there were several publications. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (23) was used to assess the quality of observational studies. This scale uses a “star” system (with a maximum of 9 stars) to assess the quality of a study in 3 domains: selection of participants, comparability of study groups, and ascertainment of outcomes of interest. Studies that scored 7 or 8 stars were considered medium-quality. We used the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias to evaluate the validity of randomized trials (24). For each of 7 individual domains in this tool, studies were classified into low, unclear, or high risk of bias.
Data Synthesis and Analysis
Analyses involved only within-study comparisons (that is, case and control participants were only directly compared within each study) to limit potential biases. To enable a consistent approach to meta-analysis and interpretation of findings in this review, relative risk estimates for association of fatty acids and coronary disease that were often differently reported by each study (such as per-unit or per–1-SD change or comparing quintiles, quartiles, thirds, and other groupings) were transformed, using methods previously described (25). These transformed estimates consistently corresponded to the comparison of the top versus bottom third of fatty acid distribution in each study. In brief, log risk estimates were transformed assuming a normal distribution, with the comparison between the top and bottom thirds being equal to 2.18 times the log relative risk (RR) for a 1-SD increase (or 2.54 times the log RR for a comparison of extreme quarters). We calculated SEs of the log RRs using published confidence limits and transformed the SEs in the same way (Supplement 2, provides details of the statistical methods used). Studies that reported RRs with differing degrees of adjustment for other risk factors used the most adjusted estimate that did not include adjustment for blood lipids or circulating fatty acids (because circulating lipids may act as potential mediators for the associations between fatty acids and coronary disease [26]). We used reported RR or calculated study-specific unadjusted RR for the main outcomes of interest for randomized intervention trials. Hazard ratios and odds ratios were assumed to approximate the same measure of relative risk. We calculated summary RRs by pooling the study-specific estimates using a random-effects model that included between-study heterogeneity (parallel analyses used fixed-effects models). We estimated correlations of dietary fatty acid and circulating fatty acid intake by pooling study-specific Spearman correlation coefficients using random-effects meta-analysis. Consistency of findings across individual studies was assessed by standard chi-square tests and the I2 statistic (27). We assessed heterogeneity between observational cohorts by comparing results from studies grouped according to prespecified study-level characteristics (such as location, sex, year of baseline survey, duration of follow-up, numbers of outcomes recorded, outcome definition, degree of statistical adjustment used, assay characteristics, dietary assessment, and categories of study quality score) using meta-regression. We used a similar method to assess heterogeneity between randomized trials by constructing groups according to prespecified trial characteristics (such as type and formulation of intervention, year of random assignment, allocation concealment, blinding of caregivers and participants, daily dose of supplementation, composition of placebo, and risk of bias). We assessed evidence of publication bias across studies by using funnel plots and Egger tests (28). All statistical tests were 2-sided and used a significance level of P < 0.05. All analyses were done using Stata, version 11 (StataCorp, College Station, Texas).
Role of the Funding Source
This study was funded by the British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Cambridge National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, and Gates Cambridge. The funding sources had no role in conducting, analyzing, or interpreting study results or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
Results
Seventy-two unique studies were identified (Figure 1 of Supplement 1 and the Table). Nineteen were based in North America, 42 in Europe, and 9 in the Asia-Pacific region; 2 were multinational. There were 45 prospective, observational cohort studies and 27 randomized, controlled trials (1 trial also reported data as an observational cohort on circulating fatty acids). Forty studies involved initially healthy populations, 10 recruited persons with elevated cardiovascular risk factors, and 22 recruited persons with cardiovascular disease at baseline.
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Dietary Fatty Acid Intake and Coronary Risk
Thirty-two prospective cohort studies reported on self-reported dietary fatty acid intake (512 420 participants, 15 945 incident coronary outcomes, and an average follow-up ranging from 5 to 23 years) (Table 4 of Supplement 1), of which 21 recorded information using diet questionnaires and 11 using diet records. All studies reported adjustment for at least several non–blood-based vascular risk factors (such as age, sex, smoking, history of diabetes, and blood pressure). Thirteen were high-quality, 19 were medium-quality, and none were low-quality (Table 5 of Supplement 1). Of the medium-quality studies, all showed a potential bias in the participant selection and 6 lacked objective confirmation of self-reported dietary intake of fatty acids by structured face-to-face interview.
Figure 1 shows RRs for coronary disease, comparing participants in the top third versus those in the bottom third of dietary fatty acids. In these studies, the pooled RRs were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.98 to 1.07) for total saturated fatty acids, 1.00 (CI, 0.91 to 1.10) for total monounsaturated fatty acids, and 1.16 (CI, 1.06 to 1.27) for total trans fatty acids (Figure 2 of Supplement 1 and Figure 1). Corresponding RRs for total dietary polyunsaturated fatty acid intake were 0.99 (CI, 0.86 to 1.14) for total α-linolenic acid, 0.87 (CI, 0.78 to 0.97) for total long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, and 0.98 (CI, 0.90 to 1.06) for total ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (Figure 3 of Supplement 1 and Figure 1). In studies of dietary fatty acid intake, there was some evidence of heterogeneity between studies according to number of events recorded (P = 0.009 for saturated and P = 0.006 for monounsaturated fatty acids) and geographic location (P = 0.020 for long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid studies) (Figure 4 of Supplement 1). There was no material difference in the combined RRs according to sex, year of baseline survey, dietary assessment tool, duration of follow-up, outcome definition, or degrees of statistical adjustment (Figure 4 of Supplement 1).

Size of the data marker is proportional to the inverse of the variance of the RR. RR = relative risk.
* Pooled estimate based on random-effects meta-analysis. Corresponding forest plots, I2 estimates, and pooled RRs based on fixed-effects meta-analysis are provided in Supplement 1.
Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Coronary Risk
Information on fatty acid biomarkers was available from 19 prospective studies (Tables 6 and 7 of Supplement 1). Seventeen reported on circulating fatty acid composition (25 721 participants and 5519 incident coronary outcomes; mean follow-up ranged from 1.3 to 30.7 years) (Table 6 of Supplement 1), and 2 reported on adipose tissue fatty acid composition (6586 participants and 1663 incident coronary events) (Table 7 of Supplement 1). Of those reporting on circulating fatty acid composition, 14 used liquid chromatography, 2 used calorimetric methods, and 1 used an enzymatic method to measure fatty acids. Six studies were judged as high-quality, 9 as medium-quality, and 2 as low-quality (Table 8 of Supplement 1). Of the medium-quality studies, 8 showed potential bias in participant selection and 1 did not control for any potential risk factor in its analyses. The 2 low-quality studies included participants drawn from selected populations and also did not control for potential covariates in their analyses. All studies reported adjustment for standard non–blood-based vascular risk factors (such as age, sex, smoking, history of diabetes, and blood pressure).
Studies tended to report on a variable number of individual fatty acid isomers (Table 9 of Supplement 1). The mean proportion of each individual circulating fatty acid relative to the total is presented in Figure 5 of Supplement 1. Among studies with available data, there were moderate positive correlations between dietary intake and circulating composition of total ω-3 and ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids and weak positive correlations for total saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids (Table 10 of Supplement 1). Relative risks for coronary outcomes (typically adjusted for non–blood-based vascular risk factors) comparing the top third versus bottom third of composite and individual circulating fatty acid composition at baseline are presented in Figures 6 to 11 of Supplement 1 and Figure 2. For the circulating total fatty acid composition, combined RRs were 1.06 (CI, 0.86 to 1.30) for total saturated fatty acids, 1.06 (CI, 0.97 to 1.17) for total monounsaturated fatty acids, 0.93 (CI, 0.83 to 1.03) for α-linolenic acid, 0.84 (CI, 0.63 to 1.11) for total long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, 0.94 (CI, 0.84 to 1.06) for total ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids, and 1.05 (CI, 0.76 to 1.44) for total trans fatty acids. Among individual saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids, RRs for palmitic, stearic, and oleic acids were 1.15 (CI, 0.96 to 1.37), 1.23 (CI, 0.93 to 1.61), and 1.09 (CI, 0.97 to 1.23), respectively. In contrast, margaric acid was significantly associated with lower risk (RR, 0.77 [CI, 0.63 to 0.93]) (Figures 6 and 7 of Supplement 1 and Figure 2). Among specific polyunsaturated fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic (0.78 [CI, 0.65 to 0.94]), docosahexaenoic (0.79 [CI, 0.67 to 0.93]), and arachidonic (0.83 [CI, 0.74 to 0.92]) acids were associated with lower risk. Dihomo-γ linolenic (1.11 [CI, 0.93 to 1.33]), eicosadienoic (1.18 [CI, 0.93 to 1.50]), and docosatetrahexanoic (1.20 [CI, 0.99 to 1.45]) acids tended toward a positive, albeit nonsignificant, association with coronary disease (Figures 8 to 10 of Supplement 1 and Figure 2). Only 2 studies with fewer than 500 case participants reported on individual circulating trans fatty acid composition (Figure 11 of Supplement 1). For circulating total saturated fatty acids, there was some evidence of heterogeneity between studies according to outcome definition (fatal vs. nonfatal) and duration of follow-up (P = 0.003 for both). For circulating eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic fatty acid composition, there was some evidence of heterogeneity between studies according to outcome definition (fatal vs. nonfatal; P = 0.004), duration of follow-up (P < 0.001), number of events recorded (P < 0.001), sex (P = 0.014), and fasting or nonfasting sampling state (P = 0.037) (Figure 12 of Supplement 1). There was no material difference in the combined RRs according to year of baseline survey, population baseline risk, geographic location, assay characteristics (such as sample type, lipids fraction used, or storage temperature), or degrees of statistical adjustment. In 2 studies that measured adipose tissue fatty acid composition, there were generally nonsignificant associations across total and specific fatty acids (Figure 13 of Supplement 1).

Size of the data marker is proportional to the inverse of the variance of the RR. RR = relative risk.
* Pooled estimate based on random-effects meta-analysis. Corresponding forest plots, I2estimates, and pooled RRs based on fixed-effects meta-analysis are provided in Supplement 1.
Effects of Fatty Acid Supplementation on Coronary Outcomes
Twenty-seven randomized, controlled trials reported on fatty acid supplementation and included a total of 105 085 participants, among whom 6229 had an incident coronary outcome (mean follow-up ranged from 0.1 to 8.0 years) (Table 11 of Supplement 1). Eighteen trials recruited participants with cardiovascular disease at baseline, 8 recruited participants with elevated cardiovascular risk factors, and 1 involved initially healthy participants. Four studies reported on α-linolenic acid supplementation (dose ranging from 2.0 to 5.5 g/d where dietary oil was the principal form of supplementation); 17 on long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementation (dose ranging from 0.3 to 6.0 g/d where capsules were the principal form of supplementation), and 8 on ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementation (2 using linoleic acid–specific and 6 using mixed polyunsaturate intervention where dietary supplementation consisted principally of linoleic acid). No data were available on interventions related to saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids. Risk-of-bias assessment in each trial is reported in Table 12 of Supplement 1. All trials had low risk of bias for the random-sequence generation and incomplete outcome data domains. We found unclear risk of bias for allocation concealment in 1 trial and for blinding of outcome assessment in 7 trials. We found high risk of bias for blinding of participants and personnel in 8 trials and for selective reporting in 3 trials. Risk of other bias was unclear in 6 trials and high in 3. Relative risks for coronary outcomes when persons in the intervention and control groups were compared were 0.97 (CI, 0.69 to 1.36) for α-linolenic acid, 0.94 (CI, 0.86 to 1.03) for total long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, and 0.86 (CI, 0.69 to 1.07) for ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (Figure 14 of Supplement 1 and Figure 3). There was no significant evidence of heterogeneity according to several trial characteristics, such as baseline population risk, geographic location, length of follow-up, outcome definition, and number of ascertained coronary outcomes (Figure 15 of Supplement 1). Furthermore, overall effects of the fatty acid supplementation on coronary disease were generally similar in the trials that had appropriate allocation concealment or blinded their participants and caregivers (Figure 15 of Supplement 1). Subsidiary analyses excluding trials that had recorded fewer than 50 coronary disease outcomes did not materially alter the results (Figure 16 of Supplement 1). However, in a subsidiary analysis, exclusion of one ω-6 trial which used a margarine-based supplementation also high in trans fat, the relative risk for ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids was 0.81 (CI, 0.68 to 0.98).

Size of the data marker is proportional to the inverse of the variance of the RR. RR = relative risk.
* Pooled estimate based on random-effects meta-analysis. Corresponding forest plots, I2 estimates, and pooled RRs based on fixed-effects meta-analysis are provided in Supplement 1.
† Includes studies with ω-6–specific intervention and mixed polyunsaturate interventions with linoleic acid as the primary fatty acid.
Assessment of Publication Bias
There was generally no evidence of publication bias among the included observational or intervention studies (Figure 17 of Supplement 1).
Discussion
Our findings do not clearly support cardiovascular guidelines that promote high consumption of ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids and suggest reduced consumption of total saturated fatty acids. First, we saw statistically nonsignificant associations in prospective studies of coronary disease that involved assessment of dietary intake of ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids. Conversely, dietary long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids was associated with lower risk of coronary disease. We found heterogeneity of the associations between specific circulating long-chain ω-3 and ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid composition and coronary disease, with some evidence that circulating levels of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids (the 2 main types of long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) and arachidonic acid are each associated with lower coronary risk. However, our meta-analysis of randomized trials of long-chain ω-3 and ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplements suggests that supplementation with these nutrients does not statistically significantly reduce the risk for coronary outcomes. These updated findings are in line with an earlier meta-analysis that reported limited effect of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplements on cardiovascular disease (22). Nonetheless, further trials are warranted because the available evidence is generally limited, especially in initially healthy populations; hence, there is considerable interest in a large randomized trial of long-chain ω-3 polyunsaturated supplements in primary prevention currently in progress (29).
Second, we found essentially null associations between total saturated fatty acids and coronary risk in studies using dietary intake and in those using circulating biomarkers. This apparent lack of association in self-reported dietary studies could at least partially be explained by biases in self-report questionnaires, especially in relation to certain foods, such as common snacks high in saturated fats (30) (however, consumption of both saturated and monounsaturated fats is measured reasonably well by questionnaires [31, 32]). We saw heterogeneity of effect across circulating composition of specific saturated fatty acids. This could, at least in part, reflect biology because circulating saturated fatty acid fractions reflect both consumption and endogenous metabolism and synthesis (33). For example, the influence of metabolism seems particularly relevant for the de novo synthesis of even-numbered saturated fatty acids in the body, compositions of which are largely determined by dietary factors, including carbohydrate and alcohol consumption (33–35), and other metabolic pathways (36, 37) rather than direct dietary intake. This is supported indirectly by the positive yet nonsignificant associations seen for circulating blood composition of palmitic and stearic acids (which are synthesized in the body and only weakly correlated with saturated fatty acid consumption [32, 38]) with coronary disease. In contrast, we found a possible inverse association between circulating margaric acid (an odd-chain saturated fatty acid that is moderately correlated with milk and dairy fat consumption [39, 40]) and coronary disease, suggesting that odd-chain saturated fats, which reflect milk or dairy consumption, may have less deleterious effects in risk for coronary heart disease (41).
Third, we saw null associations of total and individual monounsaturated fatty acids with coronary risk in studies using both dietary intake and circulating fatty acid composition. This apparent lack of association is consistent with available mechanistic data, which remain contradictory about whether monounsaturated fatty acids promote or protect against atherogenesis (42–44). In addition, total dietary trans fatty acid intake was positively associated with coronary disease risk in our meta-analysis, which is in line with the present guidelines that support avoidance of trans fats. However, because only 5 published prospective cohort studies contributed to this analysis, the inclusion of relevant data from other unpublished studies could alter the overall estimate. This association was unclear in studies that assessed circulating trans fatty acid composition, potentially because of a relative paucity of data on trans fatty acid biomarkers and coronary risk. Furthermore, the method used to measure circulating fatty acids in 1 study (41) may not have been sufficient for optimal resolution of the individual trans fatty acid isomers.
Several strengths and limitations merit careful consideration. The review provides a comprehensive systematic synthesis of available evidence by including data from different sources of evidence and quantifies the risk for coronary disease for a wide range of individual fatty acid isomers and several relevant subgroups in a consistent way. Generalizability was enhanced by the involvement of information from more than 600 000 participants in 18 countries. Most of the observational studies were judged as reasonably high-quality. Limitations include the moderate amount of available data on some specific circulating fatty acids and possible overestimations of associations because of preferential publication of extreme findings or, analogously, by selective reporting of results for particular fatty acids with striking associations. Although selective reporting seems minimal among randomized trials, few observational studies reported on all measured circulating fatty acids. Therefore, selective underreporting may have contributed at least in part to the observational findings in this meta-analysis. Because most studies lacked serial assessment of fatty acids in the same persons, relative risks in published reports may have been prone to underestimation because of “regression dilution bias” (45). Similar considerations apply to self-reported measures of fatty acid consumption. We assumed log-linear associations between fatty acid measures and coronary risk because we lacked access to individual-participant data. Although we used estimates that were unadjusted for potential mediators (such as blood lipids and circulating fatty acids), we could not adjust consistently for potential confounding factors across all studies. In addition, although most trials were rated as having low risk of bias, the findings from these studies should be interpreted with caution because of the relatively small number of trials investigating α-linolenic and ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid interventions and the potential differences in design and population characteristics of each trial.
In conclusion, the pattern of findings from this analysis did not yield clearly supportive evidence for current cardiovascular guidelines that encourage high consumption of polyunsaturated fatty acids and low consumption of saturated fats.
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From the University of Cambridge and Medical Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts; University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Exercise, Nutrition and Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; and Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Acknowledgment: The authors thank Drs. Kristiina Nyyssönen, Arja Erkkilä, and Kalevi Pyörälä for kindly providing additional data.
Grant Support: By the British Heart Foundation (RG/13/13/30194), Medical Research Council (MR/K026585/1), Cambridge National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, and Gates Cambridge.
Disclosures: Dr. Franco: Grants: Nestlé and Metagenics. Dr. Butterworth: Grants: Pfizer, Merck Sharp & Dohme, and Novartis; Personal fees: Roche Pharmaceuticals. Dr. Thompson: Grants: Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation. Dr. Khaw: Grants: Medical Research Council and Cancer Research UK. Dr. Mozaffarian: Personal fees: Bunge, Pollock Institute, Quaker Oats, Life Sciences Research Organization, Foodminds, Nutrition Impact, Amarin, AstraZeneca, Winston & Strawn, Unilever North American Scientific Advisory Board, and UpToDate online chapter. Dr. Danesh: Personal fees: Merck Sharp & Dohme UK Atherosclerosis Advisory Board, Novartis Cardiovascular & Metabolic Advisory Board, Pfizer Population Research Advisory Panel, and Sanofi Advisory Board; Grants: British Heart Foundation; British United Provident Association Foundation; diaDexus; European Research Council; European Union; Evelyn Trust; Fogarty International Centre; GlaxoSmithKline; Merck; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; National Health Service Blood and Transplant; Novartis; Pfizer; Medical Research Council; University of British Columbia; University of Sheffield; Wellcome Trust; and UK Biobank; Nonfinancial support: Merck Sharp & Dohme UK Atherosclerosis Advisory Board, Novartis Cardiovascular & Metabolic Advisory Board, Pfizer Population Research Advisory Panel, Sanofi Advisory Board, diaDexus, and Roche Pharmaceuticals. Dr. Di Angelantonio: Grant: British Heart Foundation, European Union, National Health Service Blood and Transplant, and Medical Research Council; Royalties: Elsevier (France). Authors not named here have disclosed no conflicts of interest. Forms can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M13-1788.
Corresponding Author: Rajiv Chowdhury, MD, PhD, Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, 2 Wort's Causeway, Cambridge CB1 8RN, United Kingdom; e-mail, rajiv.
Current Author Addresses: Drs. Chowdhury, Kunutsor, Butterworth, Thompson, Khaw, Danesh, and Di Angelantonio and Ms. Warnakula: Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, 2 Wort's Causeway, Cambridge CB1 8RN, United Kingdom.
Dr. Crowe: Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Richard Doll Building, Old Road Campus, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom.
Dr. Ward: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
Dr. Johnson: Centre for Exercise, Nutrition and Health Sciences, University of Bristol, 8 Priory Road, Bristol BS8 1TZ, United Kingdom.
Dr. Franco: Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Office Na 29-16, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Dr. Forouhi: United Kingdom Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge Box 285, Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge CB2 0QQ, United Kingdom.
Dr. Mozaffarian: Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115.
Author Contributions: Conception and design: R. Chowdhury, K. Khaw, J. Danesh, E. Di Angelantonio.
Analysis and interpretation of the data: R. Chowdhury, S. Warnakula, S. Kunutsor, H.A. Ward, O.H. Franco, S.G. Thompson, J. Danesh, E. Di Angelantonio.
Drafting of the article: R. Chowdhury, E. Di Angelantonio.
Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: R. Chowdhury, S. Warnakula, S. Kunutsor, F. Crowe, H.A. Ward, L. Johnson, O.H. Franco, A. Butterworth, N.G. Forouhi, S.G. Thompson, K. Khaw, D. Mozaffarian, J. Danesh, E. Di Angelantonio.
Final approval of the article: R. Chowdhury, S. Warnakula, S. Kunutsor, F. Crowe, H.A. Ward, L. Johnson, O.H. Franco, A.S. Butterworth, N.G. Forouhi, S.G. Thompson, K. Khaw, D. Mozaffarian, J. Danesh, E. Di Angelantonio.
Statistical expertise: R. Chowdhury, S. Kunutsor, S.G. Thompson, D. Mozaffarian, E. Di Angelantonio.
Obtaining of funding: K. Khaw, J. Danesh.
Administrative, technical, or logistic support: R. Chowdhury, S. Warnakula, K. Khaw.
Collection and assembly of data: R. Chowdhury, S. Warnakula, S. Kunutsor, K. Khaw, E. Di Angelantonio.
* Ms. Warnakula and Dr. Kunutsor contributed equally to this work. Drs. Danesh and Di Angelantonio also contributed equally to this work.


Author's Response
First, we considered results on self-reported dietary fatty acid intake from 32 prospective studies (512,420 participants, 15,945 CHD cases), constituting >90% of the relevant data published before July 2013. We found essentially null associations of saturated, monounsaturated and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids with CHD, whereas intake of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids was associated with lower CHD risk and intake of trans fatty acids was associated with higher CHD risk. In contrast with the claim by Willett et al, our paper stated that prospective studies were eligible for inclusion in this review if they involved either participants from general populations or patients with stable cardiovascular disease at study entry, which explains the inclusion of both types of participants from the Kuopio Heart Study (the investigators of which provided us with updated data following correspondence). However, as alluded to by Willett et al, we could not include 5 studies known to have information on dietary intake of omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids and CHD because they had published insufficient numerical information and did not respond to our requests for further details.1 Nevertheless, as these studies comprised only about 15% of the relevant available data on omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids, it is unlikely their inclusion would have materially altered the relative risk we observed for CHD of 0.98 (95% CI 0.90-1.06).
Second, we considered results on the relative concentrations of individual circulating fatty acidsfrom 17 prospective studies (25,721 participants, 5519 CHD cases). We found a possible inverse association between margaric acid and CHD, and possible positive associations between palmitic and stearic acids and CHD. We found some evidence that circulating levels of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acid (the 2 main types of long-chain omega-3) and arachidonic acid were each associated with lower CHD risk. In contrast with the suggestion by Willett et al, the aforementioned results featured prominently in the review, such as in Figure 2 and in the results and discussion sections. As suggested by Dawczynski et al, our review emphasized results based on individual fatty acids (rather than on the total composition in each class of fatty acid) because the studies included typically measured different sets of individual fatty acids, thereby making it difficult to interpret results based on total compositions. However, as powerful prospective studies are now measuring large and uniform panels of individual fatty acids,2 they should enable reliable evaluation of hypotheses pertaining both to total and individual fatty acid compositions.
Third, we considered 27 randomized controlled trials of fatty acid supplementation or replacement (105,085 participants, 6229 CHD cases). In aggregate, these trials have not suggested clear benefits after supplementation with alpha-linolenic acid (relative risk: 0.97, 0.69-1.36) or with long-chain omega-3 fatty acid (0.94, 0.86-1.03), or replacement of saturated fat with omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (0.86, 0.69-1.07). Although our finding for long-chain omega-3 fatty acid supplementation has been reinforced by a further null trial published since our meta-analysis,3 Willett et al and Davidoff et al correctly point out that future trials (and/or individual participant meta-analyses of these trials) could identify subgroups that benefit from such supplementation. In contrast with the claim by Liebman et al, our results section described a subsidiary analysis that omitted the Sydney Diet Heart Study (a trial which had used a margarine-based supplementation high in trans fat),4 yielding a relative risk of 0.81 (0.68-0.98) for the remaining 7 trials of omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid interventions. However, as appreciated by Te Morenga et al, this sub-analysis is difficult to interpret because it is of borderline statistical significance and because it is not clearly supported by other analyses, such as the relative risk of 0.92 (0.76-1.12) observed in the 3 available trials reporting at least 100 CHD events (which should be less prone to selective publication than are the smaller trials).
We agree that nutritional guidelines should be based on the totality of evidence, including routes of evidence that were outside the scope of our meta-analysis of CHD studies. Schwingshackl et al allude to evidence on stroke and additional cardiovascular outcomes. McCaulley alludes to a single prospective study that has reported inverse associations between circulating trans-palmitoleic acid and cardiovascular risk factors. Willett et al and others allude to evidence from metabolic ward studies reporting that replacement of dietary calories from saturated fat with polyunsaturated fat leads to small, but potentially important, reductions in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration.5 Lartey et al, Geleijnse et al, and other correspondents allude to previous statistical modelling of individual participant data from prospective studies, which has yielded a hazard ratio for CHD of 0.87 (0.77-0.97) per 5% lower energy intake from saturated fatty acids and a concomitant higher energy intake from polyunsaturated fatty acids1.
Emanuele Di Angelantonio1, MD, MSc, PhD
Rajiv Chowdhury1, MD, PhD
Nita G Forouhi2, PhD
John Danesh1, FRCP
1 Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
2 UK Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge, England
References
1. Jakobsen MU, O'Reilly EJ, Heitmann BL, Pereira MA, Bälter K, Fraser GE, et al. Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies. Am J Clin Nutr 2009;89(5):1425-32.
2. Danesh J, Saracci R, Berglund G, Feskens E, Overvad K, Panico S, et al. EPIC-Heart: the cardiovascular component of a prospective study of nutritional, lifestyle and biological factors in 520,000 middle-aged participants from 10 European countries. Eur J Epidemiol 2007;22(2):129-41.
3. Bonds DE, Harrington M, Worrall BB, Bertoni AG, Eaton CB, Hsia J, et al. Effect of long-chain ω-3 fatty acids and lutein + zeaxanthin supplements on cardiovascular outcomes: results of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) randomized clinical trial. JAMA Intern Med 2014;174(5):763-71.
4. Ramsden CE, Zamora D, Leelarthaepin B, Majchrzak-Hong SF, Faurot KR, Suchindran CM, et al. Use of dietary linoleic acid for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and death: evaluation of recovered data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study and updated meta-analysis. BMJ 2013;346:e8707.
5. Clarke R, Frost C, Collins R, Appleby P, Peto R. Dietary lipids and blood cholesterol: quantitative meta-analysis of metabolic ward studies. BMJ 1997;314(7074):112-7.
Comment
1. In the abstract and discussion, the nonsignificant findings for biomarkers of long chain N-3 fatty acid intake are based on total long chain N-3 PUFA’s in only four studies. However, in the supplementary tables, long chain N-3 PUFA’s were actually examined in 13 studies, and findings for the specific long chain PUFA’s (EPA and DHA) were robustly and significantly inverse. Thus, both the result for both intake and biomarkers for long chain N-3 fatty acids support benefit. While the findings for RCT’s are variable, this would be expected because many of the populations studied had relatively high intakes of N-3 fatty acids, and most individuals would likely experience little benefit.
2. The analysis for N-6 PUFA’s still includes only 8 studies, and omits other studies included in the Jakobsen pooled analysis of original data (2) as well as other published papers.
3. The data on N-6 PUFA intake from the Kuopio Heart Study, the study with the most positive association, are erroneous because the denominator is almost double the number of healthy subjects (3). Contrary to what Chowdhury et al. state in their methods, they apparently included individuals with prevalent CVD at baseline instead of limiting the analysis those to healthy persons. The original study reported an RR of 0.38 (95% CI, 0.20-0.70) for fatal CVD among those with higher intake of polyunsaturated fats.
4. The discussion still does not acknowledge the earlier pooled analysis of primary data based on a larger number of studies, which allowed direct comparisons among different types of fats, and in that analysis substitution of saturated fats with PUFA’s was associated with lower risks of CHD (2).
5. The large body of data showing that replacing saturated fats with monounsaturated fatty acids or PUFA’s reduces LDL cholesterol is still not recognized.
Although Chowdhury et al. say in their revision that their conclusions did not change, a more inclusive and correct review of available evidence would support the replacement of saturated fat with polyunsaturated fatty acids.
Walter C. Willett, M.D., Dr. P.H.
Chair, Department of Nutrition, Harvard School of Public Health
Meir J. Stampfer, M.D., Dr. P.H.
Professor of Nutrition and Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Frank M. Sacks, M.D.
Professor of Cardiovascular Disease Prevention, Harvard School of Public Health
References
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, Crowe F, Ward HA, Johnson L, et al. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplement fatty acids with coronary risk. Ann Intern Med. 2014; 160:398-406.
2. Jakobsen MU, O'Reilly EJ, Heitmann BL, Pereira MA, Bälter K, Fraser GE, et al. Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies. Am J Clin Nutr. 2009;89:1425-32.
3. Laaksonen DE, Nyyssonen K, Niskanen L, Rissanen TH, Salonen JT. Prediction of cardiovascular mortality in middle aged men by dietary and serum linoleic and polyunsaturated fatty acids. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:193-9.
Comment
An earlier meta-analysis found a 19% reduction in CHD risk in randomized clinical trials that replaced saturated fat with omega-6 polyunsaturated fats. In Supplement Figure 14, Chowdhury et al. found no significant reduction in risk because they included one additional trial, the Sydney Diet Heart Study, which (according to a footnote) provided subjects with a margarine high in trans fatty acids. Without the SDHS, Chowdhury found the same 19% reduction in risk. Was that critical finding omitted from the printed study because it contradicted the authors’ main conclusion?
Furthermore, Chowdhury et al. incorrectly referred to the eight trials examined as “supplementation” trials. In fact, those trials reduced saturated fats and replaced them with polyunsaturated fats, precisely what most guidelines recommend. The evidence from these trials trumps observational studies—plagued by imprecise dietary intake data and possible residual confounding—that have failed to find an association between fatty acids and heart disease risk.
1 Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, et al. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplement fatty acids with coronary risk. Ann Intern Med 2014; 160(6):398-406.
2 Mozaffarian D, Micha R, Wallace S. Effects on coronary heart disease of increasing polyunsaturated fat in place of saturated fat: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. PLoS Med. 2010 doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000252.
Bonnie F. Liebman, M.S.
Director of Nutrition
Center for Science in the Public Interest
Washington, DC 20005
Martijn B. Katan, Ph.D .
Emeritus professor of nutrition
VU University Amsterdam
Dept. of Health Sciences
Michael F. Jacobson, Ph.D.
Executive Director
Center for Science in the Public Interest
Washington, DC 20005
Comment
SAFA are beneficial when they replace trans fatty acids (2). We also know that replacing SAFA with carbohydrates (i.e. low-fat diet instead of high SAFA diet) does not confer heart health benefit because both LDL and HDL cholesterol will be reduced, with no change in the LDL/HDL ratio. When MUFA are consumed instead of SAFA, there is a probable benefit. For PUFA, the case is convincing based onprospective epidemiological studies and randomized controlled trials (2). Replacing 5% of daily energy as SAFA with PUFA would lower CHD risk by 13% on basis of cohort studies and will reduce the risk by 10% on basis of randomized controlled trials (3). Furthermore, it is a misconception that a substantial replacement of SAFA (e.g. 5 en%) could be achieved with omega-3 PUFA. In western diets, alpha-linolenic acid combined with fish fatty acids can provide at most 2-3 en%. In these diets, most sources of omega-3 are also high in omega-6. The authors refer to the meta-analysis of Ramsden et al (4), which showed a significantly reduced CHD risk when replacing SAFA with PUFA based on ‘mixed omega-3 plus omega-6 trials’. It should be emphasized, however, that in these trials the level of omega-6 was much higher than that of omega-3 PUFA.
The estimates of the associations and effects sizes that Chowdhury et al. report for PUFA are fully compatible with earlier analyses of the same data that did take macronutrient replacement into account (2,5,6). The authors’ conclusion that “Current evidence does not clearly support cardiovascular guidelines that encourage high consumption of PUFA and low consumption of total SAFA” is therefore misleading. Dietary guidelines should always be based on the totality of available evidence.
References
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, et al. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplement fatty acids with coronary risk. Ann Intern Med 2014;160:398-406.
2. Mensink RP, Zock PL, Kester AD, Katan MB. Effects of dietary fatty acids and carbohydrates on the ratio of serum total to HDL cholesterol and on serum lipids and apolipoproteins: a meta-analysis of 60 controlled trials. Am J Clin Nutr 2003;77:1146-1155.
3. Kromhout D, Geleijnse JM, Menotti A, Jacobs Jr DR. The confusion about dietary fatty acids recommendations for CHD prevention Br J Nutr 2011;106:627-632.
4. Ramsden CE, Zamora D, Leelarthaepin B, Majchrzak-Hong SF, Faurot KR, Suchindran CM, et al. Use of dietary linoleic acid for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and death: evaluation of recovered data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study and updated meta-analysis. BMJ 2013;346:e8707.
5. Jakobsen MU, O'Reilly EJ, Heitmann BL, Pereira MA, Bälter K, Fraser GE, Goldbourt U, Hallmans G, Knekt P, Liu S, Pietinen P, Spiegelman D, Stevens J, Virtamo J, Willett WC, Ascherio A. Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies. Am J Clin Nutr 2009:89:1425-1432.
6. Mozaffarian D, Micha R, Wallace S. Effects on coronary heart disease of increasing polyunsaturated fat in place of saturated fat: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. PLoS Med 2010;7:e1000252.
Comment
In this regard, there is an important body of epidemiological evidence that Chowdhury et al. did not consider, presumably, because their meta-analysis was based on aggregate data. A pooled analysis of participant data from 11 cohort studies, including 2155 coronary deaths among 344,696 persons by Jakobsen et al. found a 26% reduction in coronary deaths when a 5% lower energy intake from saturated fatty acids was combined with a higher intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids(1). This important evidence extends knowledge about dietary fatty acids showing the effects of saturated fat on coronary disease, not in isolation from other macronutrients, but when replaced by other fatty acids or carbohydrate – as would occur in those following dietary guidelines.
Serum total cholesterol, a powerful causal risk factor for cardiovascular disease, is lowered to a predictable extent when n-6 polyunsaturated (or monounsaturated) fatty acids replace saturated fatty acids (2). The randomised controlled trials reporting clinical outcomes are more difficult to interpret; most were initiated many decades ago, involved a variety of intervention diets, and have sparse information about participant compliance. Nevertheless a meta-analysis of such trials by Mozaffarian et al. showed increasing intake of polyunsaturated in place of saturated fat resulted in a 19% reduction in risk of coronary events which closely matched predictions based on the effects of dietary fats on the total:HDL cholesterol ratio (3). The corresponding summary estimate reported by Chowdhury et al. includes one additional study, the re-analysis of the Sydney Diet and Heart Study (4). The inclusion of this study, which involved the recommendation of a diet very high in polyunsaturated fatty acids and reported relatively discrepant findings to the other studies, contributed to the slightly wider confidence interval.
We submit that the results by Chowdhury et al. do not contradict previous meta-analyses of aggregate data. While nutritional guidelines should be regularly reviewed we find no evidence here to suggest that current recommendations are inappropriate.
Sincerely
Lisa Te Morenga; Phd
Jim Mann; PhD, DM
Murray Skeaff, Phd
All authors from the Department of Human Nutrition, University of Otago, New Zealand
We have no conflicts to declare.
References
1. Jakobsen MU, O'Reilly EJ, Heitmann BL, Pereira MA, Balter K, Fraser GE, et al. Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies. Am J Clin Nutr. 2009;89(5):1425-32.
2. Mensink RP, Zock PL, Kester AD, Katan MB. Effects of dietary fatty acids and carbohydrates on the ratio of serum total to HDL cholesterol and on serum lipids and apolipoproteins: a meta-analysis of 60 controlled trials. Am J Clin Nutr. 2003;77(5):1146-55.
3. Mozaffarian D, Micha R, Wallace S. Effects on coronary heart disease of increasing polyunsaturated fat in place of saturated fat: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. PLoS Med. 2010;7(3):e1000252.
4. Ramsden CE, Zamora D, Leelarthaepin B, Majchrzak-Hong SF, Faurot KR, Suchindran CM, et al. Use of dietary linoleic acid for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and death: evaluation of recovered data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study and updated meta-analysis. BMJ. 2013;346:e8707.
Correction
Correction
Comment
References
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, Crowe F, Ward H, Johnson L, et al. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplementary fatty acids with coronary risk. Ann Intern Med. 2014;160:398-406.
2. Schwingshackl L, Hoffmann G. Monounsaturated fatty acids and risk of cardiovascular disease: synopsis of the evidence available from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Nutrients. 2012;4:1989-2007.
3. Estruch R, Ros E, Salas-Salvadó J, Covas MI, Corella D, Arós F, et al. Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with a Mediterranean diet. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:1279-90.
4. Samieri C, Feart C, Proust-Lima C, Peuchant E, Tzourio C, Stapf C, et al. Olive oil consumption, plasma oleic acid, and stroke incidence The Three-City Study. Neurology. 2011;77(5):418-25.
5. Buckland G, Mayén AL, Agudo A, Travier N, Navarro C, Huerta JM, et al. Olive oil intake and mortality within the Spanish population (EPIC-Spain). Am J Clin Nutr. 2012;96:142-9.
6. Sofi F, Macchi C, Abbate R, Gensini GF, Casini A. Mediterranean diet and health status: an updated meta-analysis and a proposal for a literature-based adherence score. Public Health Nutr. 2013:1-14.
Comment
Further, the authors did not mention a pooled analysis (6) of the primary data from prospective studies, in which a significant inverse association between intake of polyunsaturated fat (the large majority being the N-6 linoleic acid) and risk of CHD was found. Also, in this analysis, substitution of polyunsaturated fat for saturated fat was associated with lower risk of CHD. Chowdhury et al. also failed to point out that most of the monounsaturated fat consumed in their studies was from red meat and dairy sources, and the findings do not necessarily apply to consumption in the form of nuts, olive oil, and other plant sources. Thus, the conclusions of Chowdhury et al. regarding the type of fat being unimportant are seriously misleading and should be disregarded.
Sincerely,
Walter Willett
Frank Sacks
Meir Stampfer
Harvard University
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, et al. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplement fatty acids with coronary risk. Ann Intern Med 2014; 160(6):398-406.
2. Oh K, Hu FB, Manson JE, Stampfer MJ, Willett WC. Dietary fat intake and risk of coronary heart disease in women: 20 years of follow-up of the Nurses' Health Study. Am J Epidemiol 2005;161:672-9.
3. Laaksonen DE, Nyyssonen K, Niskanen L, Rissanen TH, Salonen JT. Prediction of cardiovascular mortality in middle aged men by dietary and serum linoleic and polyunsaturated fatty acids. Arch Intern Med 2005;165:193-199.
4. de Goede J, Geleijnse JM, Boer JM, Kromhout D, Verschuren WM. Linoleic acid intake, plasma cholesterol and 10-year incidence of CHD in 20,000 middle-aged men and women in the Netherlands. Br J Nutr 2012;107:1070-6.
5. Dolecek TA. Epidemiological evidence of relationships between dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids and mortality in the multiple risk factor intervention trial. Proc Soc Exp Biol Med 1992;200:177-82.
6. Jakobsen MU, O'Reilly EJ, Heitmann BL, Pereira MA, Bälter K, Fraser GE, Goldbourt U, Hallmans G, Knekt P, Liu S, Pietinen P, Spiegelman D, Stevens J, Virtamo J, Willett WC, Ascherio A. Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies. Am J Clin Nutr 2009:1425-32.
Bias in selection of trials in meta-analysis
In fact, the results section of the original paper never contained that subsidiary analysis. The authors inserted it later, possibly after they had seen our criticism (3). A comparison of the original version (http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=1846638 , Supplements tab) with the current version shows where the paper was edited (page 403, above ‘Assessment of Publication Bias’).
The authors now appear to agree that in randomized clinical trials, replacing saturated by polyunsaturated fat reduces CHD risk by 19% (P < 0.05). However, they continue to ignore this finding “because it is not clearly supported by other analyses, such as the relative risk of 0.92 (0.76-1.12) observed in the 3 available trials reporting at least 100 CHD events (which should be less prone to selective publication than are the smaller trials).” (2) This selection of 3 trials reporting at least 100 CHD events is new; the original paper reported additional analyses “excluding trials that had recorded fewer than 50 coronary disease outcomes” (but not excluding the Sydney trial in which subjects consumed margarines high in trans fat).
This emphasis on selective publication diverts attention from the real issue. As the authors stated themselves, “There was generally no evidence of publication bias”. (1) The real issue in this meta-analysisis the way in which the authors included or excluded published trials. An objective analysis of trials that replace saturated fat with omega-6 polyunsaturated fats would not have included a trial that used a high-trans-fat margarine in the first place. Subsidiary analyses of arbitrary subgroups of trials were also unwarranted, and the corrections to the original version do not repair the damage caused by the paper's misleading conclusions.
Martijn B. Katan, Ph.D .
Emeritus professor of nutrition
VU University Amsterdam
Dept. of Health Sciences
Bonnie F. Liebman, M.S.
Director of Nutrition
Center for Science in the Public Interest
Washington, DC 20005
Michael F. Jacobson, Ph.D.
Executive Director
Center for Science in the Public Interest
Washington, DC 20005
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, Crowe F, Ward HA, Johnson L, et al. Association of Dietary, Circulating, and Supplement Fatty Acids With Coronary Risk A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Ann Intern Med. 2014 Mar 18;160(6):398–406.
2. Di Angelantonio E, Chowdhury R, Forouhi NG, Danesh J. Author’s Response. Annals of Internal Medicine [Internet]. 2014 Jul 1; http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=1846638
3. Liebman BF, Katan MB, Jacobson MF. Comment on Chowdhury et al. Annals of Internal Medicine [Internet]. 2014 Apr 28; http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=1846638
Four types of evidence are reviewed and meta-analysed
On omega-6 fatty acids Chowdhury et al have 8 studies. In Fig 3. KIHD is incorrect: omega-6 and Linoleic Acid (LA) were protective. And in HPFS, LA was inversely related to fatal heart disease.
There are at least seven OTHER prospective studies not in Chowdhury et al. In 5 of these, including large ones (1) (2) omega-6 or LA were negatively related to coronary heart disease (CHD). Hence omega 6 should be to the left in the forest plot in 11/15 studies.
BLOOD LIPID FATTY ACID’S
On LA, Chowdhury et al have 10 studies in their forest plot (Fig 10). One of these is incorrect: in ARIC, LA and omega-6 were lower in CHD cases (not higher), and the references for LURIC report free fatty acids (FFAs) not type of fatty acid.
There are at least seven OTHER reports on blood omega-6 and CHD, two with large numbers (3) (4). In all of them LA (or in one study P/S) tended to be protective. Hence, in the forest plot omega-6 should be to the left in 13/16 studies.
ADIPOSE TISSUE FATTY ACIDS
Only one study in Chowdhury et al includes LA. There are also eight OTHER reports of adipose tissue FAs and CHD. Six of them found LA lower in cases. A very useful review by W.S. Harris et al (2007) has 7 articles on adipose tissue FAs and CHD, none included in Chowdhury et al.
DIET TRIALS AND SUPPLEMENATION
Chowdhury et al don’t distinguish between these two very different types of trials. Most of the papers reviewed by Chowdhury et al report simple supplementation with fish oil on EPA+DHA.
But it seems incorrect to combine supplement trials with diet trials for meta-analysis. In Diet trials the experimental group were asked to eat both less saturated fats and more PUFAs. These diet trials were very hard work. We can’t in 2014 expect any new ones, so we have to make the most of those we have.
In the forest plot for omega-6 in Fig 14, SDHS is the obvious outlier. The SDHS authors originally wrote: “…comparison of the mean diets of those who died with those who survived revealed only trivial differences.”(5)
The numbers for a protective effect of LA/omega-6 FAs on coronary risk would be stronger if Chowdury et al had reviewed the whole literate and avoided occasional errors.
REFERENCES
(1) Shekelle RB, Shyrock AM, Paul O, Lepper M, Stamler J, Liu S & Raynor WJ. Diet, serum cholesterol, and death from coronary heart disease. N Engl J Med 1981; 304:65-70
(2) Goldbourt U, Yaari S & Medalie JH. Factors predictive of long-term heart disease mortality among 10,059 Israeli civil servants and municipal employees. Cardiology 1993; 82:100-121
(3) Miettinen TA, Naukkarinen V, Huttunen JK, Mattila S & Kumlin T Fatty acid composition of serum lipids predicts myocardial infarction. Brit Med J 1982; 285:993-996
(4) Block RC, Harris WS, Reid KJ & Spertus JA. Omega-6 and trans fatty acids in blood cell membranes: a risk factor for acute coronary syndromes? Am Heart J 2008; 156:1117-1123
(5) Woodhill JM, Palmer J, Leelarthaepin B, McGilchrist C & Blacket RB. Low fat, low cholesterol diet in secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. Adv Exp Med Biol 1978; 109:317-330
No Vindication for Saturated Fatty Acids.
First, data from VIP [2,3] have been included in the evaluation of NSHDS, as stated in [4]. Second, VIP and NSHDS assessed the association between high intakes of SFA from dairy products (indicated by pentadecanoic acid (C15:0) and heptadecanoic acid (C17:0) or their sum in serum lipid esters) with cardiovascular disease [3,4]. In both studies, negative associations between milk-fat intake and first-ever myocardial infarction were found. Neither of the two studies described the association of circulating blood total SFA on coronary outcomes. Importantly, C15:0 and C17:0 contribute only 0.5-1.0% of the fatty acids in total phospholipids [4]. In contrast, the total SFA amount in plasma phospholipids ranges between 40-45%, which is mainly composed of palmitic acid (C16:0) with approx. 50-60% and stearic acid (C18:0) with approx. 30-40% of the total SFA amount [5].Thus, C15:0 and C17:0 are markers for milk or ruminant fat intake [3,4], but not for total SFA intake, and there are several SFA sources, such as baking margarines, coconut oil and palm oil, which do not contain C15:0 and C17:0. In agreement with this, we also found that proportions of C15:0 and C17:0 in human erythrocyte membranes are between 1.0-2.9% of total SFA and show no correlation with the concentration of total SFA (unpublished data). When we repeated the meta-analysis after excluding VIP and NSHDS we found a positive association of total SFA blood levels and coronary outcomes (RR 1.21, CI 1.04-1.40). This finding contradicts the overall conclusion drawn by Chowdhury and colleagues [1].
Proper communication of health risks of dietary habits is essential to achieve appropriate changes in lifestyle habits and to improve cardiovascular health. The results of the meta-analysis gave rise to misleading headlines like ‘Animal fat is not bad for the heart’ in the national lay press. Consumers may continue their unhealthy dietary habits in response to such simplified messages. Due to the impact of meta-analyses on the general public, thoroughly and reasonable selection of studies and careful evaluation of data are vital for the accuracy of results and for protecting people from harm.
References
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, Crowe F, Ward HA, Johnson L, Franco OH, Butterworth AS, Forouhi NG, Thompson SG, Khaw KT, Mozaffarian D, Danesh J, Di Angelantonio E. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplement fatty acids with coronary risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Ann Intern Med 2014; 160(6):398-406.
2. Hallgren CG, Hallmans G, Jansson JH, Marklund SL, Huhtasaari F, Schütz A, Strömberg U, Vessby B, Skerfving S. Markers of high fish intake are associated with decreased risk of a first myocardial infarction. Br J Nutr 2001; 86(3):397-404.
3. Warensjö E, Jansson JH, Berglund L, Boman K, Ahrén B, Weinehall L, Lindahl B, Hallmans G, Vessby B. Estimated intake of milk fat is negatively associated with cardiovascular risk factors and does not increase the risk of a first acute myocardial infarction. A prospective case-control study. Br J Nutr 2004; 91(4):635-642.
4. Warensjö E, Jansson JH, Cederholm T, Boman K, Eliasson M, Hallmans G, Johansson I, Sjögren P. Biomarkers of milk fat and the risk of myocardial infarction in men and women: a prospective, matched case-control study. Am J Clin Nutr 2010; 92(1):194-202.
5. Bassett JK, Severi G, Hodge AM, MacInnis RJ, Gibson RA, Hopper JL, English DR, Giles GG. Plasma phospholipid fatty acids, dietary fatty acids and prostate cancer risk. Int J Cancer 2013; 133(8):1882-1891.
Public health implications of an uncritical fanfare of a single publication
Guidelines for healthier fat intakes must account for what replaces the items that are restricted. We now know that replacing saturated fat with sugar and refined carbohydrates does not reduce the risk of heart disease, but replacement with polyunsaturated fats does. This is the current scientific consensus and is the basis of current recommendations to replace saturated fat in the diet with unsaturated fats.
Our primary concern is the public health implications of an uncritical fanfare of a single publication. Data show that mixed messages such as this report offers increase the public’s confusion and skepticism about effective dietary guidance. Ongoing scientific discussions about dietary factors, including saturated fat, and health are the foundation of scientific and public health progress. However, debunking the evidence about dietary fat and the risk of heart disease without constructive, science-based recommendations the public can actually use is at the very least unhelpful and contributes negatively to public health.
The new analysis published last week does not bring new scientific data or insights. The practical dietary recommendations on fat in the diet therefore remain the same: reduce the intake of saturated fat (‘hard’ fat as found in fatty meat, whole milk dairy products, butter, pies) and eat products low in saturated fat and high in unsaturated fats such as lean meats, reduced fat dairy foods, liquid vegetable oils and products made with these oils.
Authors
ANNA LARTEY, PhD.,Professor of Nutrition.
President of the International Union of Nutritional Sciences
BETHOLD V. KOLETZKO, Professor of Paediatrics. MD PhD (Dr med Dr med habil)
Head Div. Metabolic Diseases & Nutritional Medicine, Univ. Munich Medical Centre, Munich, Germany.
CONNIE DIEKMAN, MEd, RD, CSSD, LD, FAND
Connie Diekman is Director of University Nutrition at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri.
GERARD HORNSTRA, PhD Med
Professor Em. of Experimental Nutrition, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
JOYCE NETTLETON, DSc; Specialist in seafood nutrition and science communication.
Dr Joyce Nettleton has an independent consulting practice, ScienceVoice Consulting, in Denver, CO.
Disclosures: International activities of the IEM are held under the auspices of the International Union of Nutritional Sciences (IUNS) and funded by an unrestricted educational grant from Unilever.
The serious consequences of ignoring the ecological fallacy
TO THE EDITOR:
The recent review by Chowdhury et al (1) provides a sobering reappraisal of the widely presumed association between dietary fat and coronary disease. Unfortunately, their otherwise careful study accepts uncritically the assumption that size of an intervention’s effect in individual members (or subgroups) of a study population is the same as it is in the entire study population; that is, the review fails to avoid the ecological fallacy.
Kent et al (2) identify two potentially serious clinical consequences of ignoring the ecological fallacy; both are due to the inherent risk-based heterogeneity of absolute treatment effects (3), which has been shown to vary as much as 20-fold between study population subgroups with the highest vs. lowest baseline risk for adverse outcomes (2). The first problem is failure to recognize that some interventions whose efficacy is statistically confirmed in an entire study population provide no meaningful benefit to sizeable subgroups of that population. For example, warfarin prevents stroke more effectively than aspirin in the overall population of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, but the subgroup of patients without additional risk factors for stroke does not benefit incrementally from warfarin therapy (2). The second, and opposite, problem is failure to recognize that some interventions provide true benefit in subgroups of a study population even though the intervention is not shown statistically to “work” in the population as a whole. The inclusion of study populations at widely varying baseline risk for adverse coronary events in the review by Chowdhury et al (1) greatly increases the likelihood that its broadly negative conclusion is, at least in part, falsely negative.
Interestingly, although risk-based targeting of clinical interventions is a neglected (and perhaps resisted) approach in many areas of clinical practice, including drug therapy (4), it is rapidly gaining acceptance as an appropriate, effective, and efficient clinical strategy in cancer screening (5). Kent et al propose a multivariable technique for measuring the impact of clinical interventions in subgroups at different levels of baseline risk; the technique is relatively straightforward, has substantial statistical power, and avoids most of the usual methodological pitfalls of “one-variable-at-a-time” subgroup analyses (2).
In our view, truly evidence-based dietary recommendations on dietary fat will be possible only when we have answered the crucial questions of what changes in dietary fat (if any) lower the rate of coronary events, in whom, and under what conditions, by careful risk-stratified examination of these causal relationships.
Word count: 398 (text only)
Frank Davidoff, MD
Editor Emeritus, Annals of Internal Medicine
Wethersfield, Connecticut
e-mail: [email protected]
Irwin H Rosenberg, MD
University Professor, Medicine and Nutrition
Tufts University
Medford, Massachusetts
e-mail: [email protected]
References
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, Crowe F, Ward HA, Johnson L, et al. Association of dietary, circulating, and supplement fatty acids with coronary risk. A systematic review and meta-analysis. Ann Intern Med 2014;160:398-406.
2. Kent DM, Rothwell PM, Ioannidis JPA, Altman DG, Hayward RA. Assessing and reporting heterogeneity in treatment effects in clinical trials: a proposal. Trials 2010;11:85
3. Davidoff F. Heterogeneity is not always noise. Lessons from improvement. JAMA 2009;302:2580-6.
4. Hayward RA, Kent DM, Vijan S, Hofer TP. Reporting clinical trial results to inform providers, payers, and consumers. Health Affairs 2005;24:1571-81.
5. Kovalchik SA, Tammemagi M, Berg CD, Caporaso NE, Riley TL, Korch M, et al. Targeting of low-dose CT screening according to the risk of lung-cancer death. N Engl J Med 2013;369:245-54.
Taking a broader approach to the role of dietary fats in cardiovascular disease
From a physiological perspective, current CVD guidelines are based on the putative etiology of CVD as a condition of lipid accumulation, to which dietary intake is a significant contributor. However, powerful evidence identifies (auto)immune-inflammatory and oxidative stress as key initiators of atherosclerosis. While blood lipids are still considered to be important in CVD progression, their position in the causal chain may be as key mediators of the relationship between inflammation and CVD, rather than having a primary causal influence on the atherosclerotic process(2). Despite this framework being the “burgeoning area of cardiovascular medicine”(3), the focus of diet-related research in CVD prevention remains predominantly on cholesterol reduction (and by association, saturated fat consumption). As the modern, Western diet is increasingly characterized by pro-inflammatory properties, including insufficient consumption of nutrient and fiber-dense foods and overconsumption of ultra-processed food products that contain energy dense sugars and hydrogenated plant-based oils, it is more pertinent to consider whole-of-diet as a key driver of this inflammatory process.
From a nutrition perspective, the single nutrient approach that underpins current CVD guidelines around saturated fats is problematic. Stanton argues that while a reductionist approach is useful for scientific purposes, it neglects context(4); the importance of sources of fatty acids and its effects when consumed with other foods. For example, fatty acids may be beneficial when consumed with vegetables, rich in anti-inflammatory phytochemicals(5).
Finally, from a clinical/public health perspective, the focus on single nutrients results in a chasm between research and real-world pragmatism, where no nutrient is consumed in isolation and excess is as important as deficiency. CVD clinical guidelines and public health strategies thus need to move beyond reductionism to a more practicable approach where whole-of-diet has the potential to ameliorate vascular inflammation.
1. Chowdhury R, Warnakula S, Kunutsor S, Crowe F, Ward HA, Johnson L, et al. Association of Dietary, Circulating, and Supplement Fatty Acids With Coronary Risk A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Annals of Internal Medicine 2014;160(6):398-406.
2. Libby P. Inflammation and cardiovascular disease mechanisms. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2006;83(2):456S-460S.
3. Houston MC. New Concepts in the Diagnosis and Non-Surgical Treatment of Cardiovascular Disease. Intern Med 2014;S12:http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2165-8048.S12-003.
4. Stanton RA. Diet and nutrition: the folly of the reductionist approach. Med J Aust 2013;198(7): 350-351.
5. Vannice G, Rasmussen H. Position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics: Dietary Fatty Acids for Healthy Adults. Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics 2014;114(1):136-153.
The authors thank Michael Berk, Felice Jacka, Andrew Sinclair and Paul Lewandowski for feedback on this letter.
Disclosures: The authors have received project funding from Meat and Livestock Australia
Effect of trans-palmitoleic acid
It is with great interest I read the meta-analysis and review by Chowdhury et al. regarding the association of various fatty acids with coronary risk. Although the authors did report data regarding palmitoleic acid on coronary risk, not mentioned in this meta-analysis and review is the potential impact of trans-palmitoleic acid on coronary risk. In the 2010 Prospective cohort study by Mozaffarian et al., the effect of trans-palmitoleic acid on vascular risk factors and especially diabetes risk was assessed. (1)
Trans-palmitoleic acid is generally acquired from exogenous sources, until recently not being thought to be endogenously synthesizable. It is created by fermentation in the rumen of dairy cattle. Trans-palmitoleic acid levels constitute a marker for consumption of dairy fat although a recent publication does suggest a pathway used for endogenous synthesis. (2) In the Mozaffarian study, increasing levels of plasma trans-palmitoleic acid were associated with lower levels of insulin resistance, decreased c-reactive protein levels, higher high density lipoprotein levels, and a substantially reduced incidence of diabetes (multivariate hazard ratios of 0.41). No data was reported on coronary risk. Given the salutary effect, in the Mozaffarian study, of trans-palmitoleic acid on multiple cardiovascular risk factors, and the considerable contribution of dairy fat in the over-all saturated fat intake of most populations, perhaps dairy fat consumption could account for much of the mitigation of the heretofore expected worsened cardiovascular risk with increased levels of saturated fat intake.
I look forward to the inclusion of data on trans-palmitoleic acid levels and their impact on coronary risk in future nutrition-cardiovascular risk association studies.
I’d like butter on that slice of bread, please!
Sincerely,
Mark McCaulley, MD, FACP
1. Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, DrPH; Haiming Cao, PhD; Irena B. King, PhD; Rozenn N. Lemaitre, PhD, MPH; Xiaoling Song, PhD; David S. Siscovick, MD, MPH; and Gökhan S. Hotamisligil, MD, PhD Trans-Palmitoleic Acid, Metabolic Risk Factors, and New-Onset Diabetes in U.S. Adults: A Cohort Study Ann Intern Med. 2010;153(12):790-799.
2. Jaudszus A1, Kramer R, Pfeuffer M, Roth A, Jahreis G, Kuhnt K. trans Palmitoleic acid arises endogenously from dietary vaccenic acid.Am J Clin Nutr. 2014 Mar;99(3):431-5. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.113.076117. Epub 2014 Jan 15.