TO THE EDITOR:
Collins and colleagues' article (1) is important because prediction is becoming an integral part of clinical medicine. I was gratified to note their statement that all predictions must be time-denominated (2). The authors suggest that there are only 2 types of predictions, diagnostic and prognostic, and subsume risk predictions within diagnostic predictions. I have suggested that risk is a third type of prediction (3).
Risk and diagnostic predictions differ in their targets, degrees of predictive accuracy, and time intervals. In diagnostic predictions, we wish to predict whether a person has detectable disease, the disease's time interval is ...
Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, Moons KG. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. Ann Intern Med. 2015;162:55-63. [PMID: 25560714] doi:10.7326/M14-0697 LinkGoogle Scholar
Burke HB. The power of prediction [Editorial]. Cancer. 2008;113:890-2. [PMID: 18615664] doi:10.1002/cncr.23675 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar
Burke HB. Increasing the power of surrogate endpoint biomarkers: the aggregation of predictive factors. J Cell Biochem Suppl. 1994;19:278-82. [PMID: 7823601] MedlineGoogle Scholar
Burke HB, Grizzle WE. Clinical validation of molecular biomarkers in translational medicine.. In: Srivastava S, eds. Biomarkers in Cancer Screening and Early Detection. Oxford, United Kingdom: Wiley; 2015 [Forthcoming]. Google Scholar
Author, Article, and Disclosure Information
Harry B. Burke,
From Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland.
Disclosures: Authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest. Forms can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterest Forms.do?msNum=L15-0100.