Articles
15 January 1993

Value of the History and Physical in Identifying Patients at Increased Risk for Coronary Artery Disease

Publication: Annals of Internal Medicine
Volume 118, Number 2

Abstract

Objective:

To determine whether information from the physician's initial evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease predicts coronary anatomy at catheterization and 3-year survival.

Design:

Prospective validation of regression model estimates in an outpatient cohort.

Setting:

University medical center.

Patients:

A total of 1030 consecutive outpatients referred for noninvasive testing for suspected coronary artery disease; 168 of these patients subsequently underwent catheterization within 90 days.

Measurements:

Information from the initial history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and chest radiograph was used to predict coronary anatomy (the likelihood of any significant coronary disease, severe disease [left main or three-vessel], and significant left main disease) among 168 catheterized patients and to estimate 3-year survival among all patients. These estimates were compared with those based on treadmill testing. Cardiovascular testing charges were calculated for all patients.

Results:

Predicted coronary anatomy and survival closely corresponded to actual findings. Compared with the treadmill exercise test, initial evaluation was slightly better able to distinguish patients with or without any coronary disease and was similar in the ability to identify patients at increased risk for dying or with anatomically severe disease. Based on arbitrary definitions, 37% to 66% of patients were at low risk and responsible for 31% to 56% of the charges for cardiovascular testing.

Conclusions:

The physician's initial evaluation, despite the subjective nature of much of the information gathered, can be used to identify patients likely to benefit from further testing. The development of strategies for cost-conscious quality care must begin with the history, physical examination, and simple laboratory testing.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

References

1.
Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Rosati RA. Estimating the likelihood of significant coronary artery disease. Am J Med. 1983; 75:771-80.
2.
Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Rankin JS, Lee KL, Muhlbaier LH, Oldham HN Jr, et al. The changing survival benefits of coronary revascularization over time. Circulation. 1987; 76(Suppl):V13-21.
3.
Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Rankin JS, Hlatky MA, Mark DB, et al. The evolution of medical and surgical therapy for coronary artery disease: a 15-year perspective. JAMA. 1989; 261:2077-86.
4.
Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Rosati RA. Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction. Stat Med. 1984; 3:143-52.
5.
Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Lee KL, Rosati RA. Evaluating the yield of medical tests. JAMA. 1982; 247:2543-6.
6.
Harris PJ, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Behar VS, Rosati RA. Survival in medically treated coronary artery disease. Circulation. 1979; 60: 1259-69.
7.
Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Rankin JS, Lee KL, Muhlbaier LH, Hlatky MA, et al. Trends in the presentation, management and survival of patients with coronary artery disease—the Duke Database for Cardiovascular Disease. In: Higgins MW, Luepker RV, eds. Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality: The Influence of Medical Care. New York: Oxford University Press; 1988:76-87.
8.
Sox HC Jr, Hickam DH, Marton KI, Moses L, Skeff KM, Sox CH, et al. Using the patient's history to estimate the probability of coronary artery disease: a comparison of primary care and referral practices. Am J Med. 1990; 89:7-14.
9.
Rosati RA, McNeer JF, Starmer CF, Mittler BS, Morris JJ Jr, Wallace AG. A new information system for medical practice. Arch Intern Med. 1975; 135:1017-24.
10.
Harris PJ, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Behar VS, Rosati RA. Outcome in medically treated coronary artery disease. Ischemic events: nonfatal infarction and death. Circulation. 1980; 62:718-26.
11.
Blunden PB, Ross CC, McCants CB, Hammond WE, Muhlbaier LH, Pryor DB. Protocol-driven automated followup for a large clinical cardiology database. In: American Association for Medical Systems and Informatics. Proceedings, AAMSI Congress. Bethesda, Maryland: The American Association for Medical Systems and Informatics. 1989:135-43.
12.
Harrell FE Jr, Peterson BL. The LOGIST procedure. In: SUGI Supplemental Library User's Guide. Cary, North Carolina: SAS Institute; 1988; 1:15-20.
13.
Cox DR. Regression models and life-tables (with discussion). J Royal Statist Soc. 1972; 34:187-220.
14.
Harrell FE Jr. The PHGLM Procedure. In: SUGI Supplemental Library Users Guide. Cary, North Carolina: SAS Institute; 1986: 437-66.
15.
Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology. 1982; 143: 29-36.
16.
Kaplan EL, Meier P. Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Statist Assn. 1958; 53:457-81.
17.
Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Exercise treadmill score for predicting prognosis in coronary artery disease. Ann Intern Med. 1987; 106:793-800.
18.
Mark DB, Hlatky MA, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Localizing coronary artery obstructions with the exercise treadmill test. Ann Intern Med. 1987; 106:53-5.
19.
Lee JC, Bengtson JR, Lipscomb J, Bashore TM, Mark DB, Califf RM, et al. Feasibility and cost saving potential of outpatient cardiac catheterization. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1990; 15:378-84.
20.
Lee KL, Pryor DB, Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Behar VS, Floyd WL, et al. Predicting outcome in coronary disease. Statistical models versus expert clinicians. Am J Med. 1986; 80:553-60.
21.
Boswick JM, Lee KL, Aronson LG, O'Connor CM, Honan MB, Califf RM, et al. Use of computerized statistical models to educate medical housestaff in estimating clinical outcomes. In: Proceedings: 11th Annual Symposium of Computer Applications in Medical Care. New York: Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers; 1987: 162-5.
22.
Kong DF, Lee KL, Harrell FE Jr, Boswick JM, Mark DB, Hlatky MA, et al. Clinical experience and predicting survival in coronary disease. Arch Intern Med. 1989; 149:1177-81.

Comments

0 Comments
Sign In to Submit A Comment

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

cover image Annals of Internal Medicine
Annals of Internal Medicine
Volume 118Number 215 January 1993
Pages: 81 - 90

History

Published in issue: 15 January 1993
Published online: 15 August 2000

Keywords

Authors

Affiliations

David B. Pryor, MD
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Linda Shaw, AB
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Charles B. McCants, BS
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Kerry L. Lee, PhD
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Daniel B. Mark, MD, MPH
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Frank E. Harrell, PhD
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Lawrence H. Muhlbaier, PhD
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Robert M. Califf, MD
From Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
Corresponding Author: David B. Pryor, MD, Duke University Medical Center, Box 3531, Durham, NC 27710.
Grant Support: In part by research grants HS-04873, HS-06503, and HS-05635 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research; research grant HL-17670 from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; and research grant LM04613 from the National Library of Medicine.

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. For an editable text file, please select Medlars format which will download as a .txt file. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu.

Format





Download article citation data for:
David B. Pryor, Linda Shaw, Charles B. McCants, et al. Value of the History and Physical in Identifying Patients at Increased Risk for Coronary Artery Disease. Ann Intern Med.1993;118:81-90. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-118-2-199301150-00001

View More

Login Options:
Purchase

You will be redirected to acponline.org to sign-in to Annals to complete your purchase.

Access to EPUBs and PDFs for FREE Annals content requires users to be registered and logged in. A subscription is not required. You can create a free account below or from the following link. You will be redirected to acponline.org to create an account that will provide access to Annals. If you are accessing the Free Annals content via your institution's access, registration is not required.

Create your Free Account

You will be redirected to acponline.org to create an account that will provide access to Annals.

View options

PDF/EPUB

View PDF/EPUB

Related in ACP Journals

Full Text

View Full Text

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share on social media